HD-DVD vs Bluray

There is a new format war that is raging in full effect, the likes of which we have not seen since the betamax/VHS days.

The contenders are HD-DVD and Bluray, both formats vying for the right to replace DVD as the next optical medium of choice.

Vital Stats:

Major Supporters:
HD-DVD:Toshiba, Microsoft, NEC, Intel, Sanyo
Bluray: Sony, 14 CE manufacturers

Studio Support:
HD-DVD: 5 Movie Studios
Bluray: 8 Movie studios
(Subject to change with the wind of course, as studios will quickly jump on board with whichever proves to be successful)

Tech:
HD-DVD: Triple Layer (only dual layer currently available), 15GB per layer, 30GB disks currently in use
Bluray: Multilayer support (though only single currently available), 25GB per layer

Software:
HD-DVD: XML (interface), VC1 (Microsoft Decompression Codec), H.264/MPEG4 (Alternative Decompression Codec), MPEG2 (current DVD codec)
Bluray: Java (interface), VC1 (Microsoft Decompression Codec), H.264/MPEG4 (Alternative Decompression Codec), MPEG2 (current DVD codec)

Bottom line:

Bluray is a technology designed from the ground up to support higher densities and and more layers (theortically up to 8 layers at 25GB per layer). The draw back to this of course is cost. HD-DVD was designed as an "upgrade" to DVD. The way the disks are pressed are very similar to DVD's as as such, only minor upgrades to DVD factories need to be made to start pressing HD-DVD's. The drawback is that they don't hold as much as Bluray.

Is the cost worth it? Hard to say. Feature for feature they are nearly identical, but initial HD-DVD drives are starting at $500, Blu-ray drives at $1000. They both can hold full length, full featured movies stored in HD. HD-DVD also has the added benefit of "hybrid" disks. Since they are pressed like DVD's, when making a double-sided disk, a company can elect to make one side DVD and the other HD-DVD, a feature that bluray does not support (with any degree of ease.) This would then allow you to make one purchase, a movie disk that will play in both your DVD player and your HD-DVD player.

So which will win?

I believe Bluray.

Despite the features, flexibility, and cost benefit of HD-DVD, there is one HUGE variable that puts victory squarely in Bluray's court.

To date, HD-DVD, despite being released before bluray (available for around 2 months now), has only sold 50K units. This isn't entirely due to demand, since that is all that Toshiba has been able to make so far.

By November, this will rise to a couple hundred thousand at best.

On the other hand, in one day, with the launch of the PS3, Sony will put upwards of 4 MILLION bluray drives on the market, 1 Million in the US, and they will sell out in the first HOUR.

In one hour, there will be more bluray drives sold than HD-DVD could hope for in a year.

With more drives out there, more incentive for movie makers to put their content on bluray, causing positive feedback loop.

The only wrench could, in theory, be Microsoft, if they make the HD-DVD add-on EXTREMELY compelling for X360 owners. But the chances of that are quite slim, and in reality, the only reason why Microsoft is backing HD-DVD (other than the fact that they hate the idea that bluray will be using Java) is that it hurts Sony and makes the format war more expensive for Sony.

Prediction: Bloody format war with either bluray victor or drawn out battle causing an abundance of dual format players.