Hal, T-1000, Sky Net... here we come!
Every day that passes, a new human-only feat is accomplished by computers.
I was rasied to believe that we are simply incapable of artificially reproducing human thought simply because it originated with god and there is simply no way for us to achieve that.
Once upon a time, computers could never beat a human at a chess game. The permutations were far too numerous for a computer to brute force, and it simply wasn't possible for a computer to "out-think" a human.
And then the unthinkable happened. The best humanity had to offer... was dethroned by a machine. Excuses were made, "But but but" rang out in religious circles.
But machines can't even do simple things... like walk! Then Asimo and QRIO rose up to debunk that claim!
"Driving a car is something that is far too complex for a machine to ever be able to do. There is no way it can account for all posibilities. Machines are inflexible and rigid. They can only handle the exact scenarios that are hard coded into their system, and if something happens that isn't accounted for, game over.... "
Oh ho ho... The Military hosted tournament, DARPA, was a resounding success with no less than 4 unmanned computers navigating though a variety of complex terrain including lakes and desert and mountains successfully completing a 150 mile journey. Unexpected obstacles like tumbleweeds and birds, ditches and boulders, none of them hard coded into the systems were insurmountable for these machines. The machines weren't hard coded... they learned.
Only a few more obstacles need to be overcome. One of the most difficult things that has perplexed man, has been understanding how we see and our amazing image recognition abilities... Machines have simply been completely left in the dust unable to separate one blue pixel in the sky from the brown pixel of the roof of a house... But now, a huge leap forward.. This obstacle is not only within the grasp of computers, but nearly solved!
We have voice recognition. Image recognition. We have machines that can walk, that can drive, that can evaluate possibilities. Now we just need to tie it all together.
If we continue to increase computing power at Moore's law (processing power doubles every 18 months) then we will attain maximum human theoretical processing power on a chip by 2030. (Despite what people in religious circles might attempt to claim). The maximum human processing power, assuming 100% efficiency, would be as simple as taking number of synapses x rate of fire. That is absolutely the maximum amount of power the human mind could generate, actual power is far far less than that since we don't fire every synapse in the brain simultaneously or constantly, at any given time, only certain areas of the brain are active.
My fear has always been that the software wouldn't keep up with the hardware... that we might have an uber-powerful CPU, but we still wouldn't have any clue how to attain sentience.
At the current rate of research, I no longer fear that will be the case.
I look forward to the ethical and moral dillemas that will arise when computers can "think" and even more so... can "out-think" us.
It will happen. I just hope we can get biological science to keep pace, so that if I want.. I can augment my abilities... I fear that biological progress will be far outstripped by digital progress... we have too many moral and ethical dillemas stiffling research in biological circles.
I must admit that there is a little part of me that will be saddened by the notion that a device far smaller than my brain will be far more powerful than my brain, and there is simply nothing I can do about that...
We will have to come to accept the difficult to swallow notion that we are not the epitomy.. the pinnacle of that which can be attained in this mortal shell.
I was rasied to believe that we are simply incapable of artificially reproducing human thought simply because it originated with god and there is simply no way for us to achieve that.
Once upon a time, computers could never beat a human at a chess game. The permutations were far too numerous for a computer to brute force, and it simply wasn't possible for a computer to "out-think" a human.
And then the unthinkable happened. The best humanity had to offer... was dethroned by a machine. Excuses were made, "But but but" rang out in religious circles.
But machines can't even do simple things... like walk! Then Asimo and QRIO rose up to debunk that claim!
"Driving a car is something that is far too complex for a machine to ever be able to do. There is no way it can account for all posibilities. Machines are inflexible and rigid. They can only handle the exact scenarios that are hard coded into their system, and if something happens that isn't accounted for, game over.... "
Oh ho ho... The Military hosted tournament, DARPA, was a resounding success with no less than 4 unmanned computers navigating though a variety of complex terrain including lakes and desert and mountains successfully completing a 150 mile journey. Unexpected obstacles like tumbleweeds and birds, ditches and boulders, none of them hard coded into the systems were insurmountable for these machines. The machines weren't hard coded... they learned.
Only a few more obstacles need to be overcome. One of the most difficult things that has perplexed man, has been understanding how we see and our amazing image recognition abilities... Machines have simply been completely left in the dust unable to separate one blue pixel in the sky from the brown pixel of the roof of a house... But now, a huge leap forward.. This obstacle is not only within the grasp of computers, but nearly solved!
We have voice recognition. Image recognition. We have machines that can walk, that can drive, that can evaluate possibilities. Now we just need to tie it all together.
If we continue to increase computing power at Moore's law (processing power doubles every 18 months) then we will attain maximum human theoretical processing power on a chip by 2030. (Despite what people in religious circles might attempt to claim). The maximum human processing power, assuming 100% efficiency, would be as simple as taking number of synapses x rate of fire. That is absolutely the maximum amount of power the human mind could generate, actual power is far far less than that since we don't fire every synapse in the brain simultaneously or constantly, at any given time, only certain areas of the brain are active.
My fear has always been that the software wouldn't keep up with the hardware... that we might have an uber-powerful CPU, but we still wouldn't have any clue how to attain sentience.
At the current rate of research, I no longer fear that will be the case.
I look forward to the ethical and moral dillemas that will arise when computers can "think" and even more so... can "out-think" us.
It will happen. I just hope we can get biological science to keep pace, so that if I want.. I can augment my abilities... I fear that biological progress will be far outstripped by digital progress... we have too many moral and ethical dillemas stiffling research in biological circles.
I must admit that there is a little part of me that will be saddened by the notion that a device far smaller than my brain will be far more powerful than my brain, and there is simply nothing I can do about that...
We will have to come to accept the difficult to swallow notion that we are not the epitomy.. the pinnacle of that which can be attained in this mortal shell.
posted by Gigaflop at
5:50 AM
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